Commercial & Trading Aspects of Oil Refining
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Day 1 Overview Course content Evolution of oil demand Refinery location, capacity and utilisation Regional product consumption and product barrel Introduction to trading markets Crude selection Nature and types of crude oil/crude assay GPW and pecking order Influence on product make Crude transportation Base and marginal crude Physical oil markets, pricing mechanisms & price exposure Physical oil markets Pricing mechanisms Pricing exposure/keeping an exposure book Introduction to Brent Introduction to the terms Role as a benchmark Why Brent? Day 2 Briefing & refining & trading simulation (round 1) General introduction Physical (wet) crude trading GPW and best crude Hedging instruments - forward & futures Evolution of the market Crude oil forward markets Review of futures contracts & terminology Hedging example using futures Basis risk and forward curve Technical analysis Briefing & refining & trading simulation (round 2) Crude hedging with futures/basis risk Hedging strategy and position management Refinery nominations (crude type and mode of operation) Refinery products & processes The main products Refinery configurations Deep residue conversion How refiners influence yield variations Overview / summary Swaps Swaps terminology and principles Examples of crude oil and product swaps Swaps settlement and pay-out Day 3 Briefing & refining & trading simulation (round 3) Gas oil futures and mogas swaps Developing a trading strategy Dated Brent and the BFO market & CFD’s The Brent forward contract Brent lifting programme Linking of the 21 day and dated Brent markets Contracts for difference/Brent CFD market Trends & developments Alternative & renewable fuels Changing crude slate Transport fuel quality & emissions Regional demand trends New plant investment Briefing & refining & trading simulation (round 4) Margin management strategies International product trade flows and transport Differences between products & crude The main product markets Product price drivers Product price differentials Refining balance Fundamentals of the various product markets Power market Bunker market Atmospheric residue market Importance of refining margins Freight Arbitrage & trade Role of traders/blenders Day 4 Refinery margins & economics Regional margin mechanism Refinery margins & regional trends Drivers for margin maximisation Blending & giveaway Performance monitoring New project economics Capex project- lock-in economics Case study: post refining & trading simulation Simulation results & briefing for team presentations Management issues Control lessons learnt The major economic risks Controlling risks Team’s refining & trading strategy presentations Course summary and close
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