Country Risk Analysis

Course Overview Given the ongoing stresses in the global economy and political upheaval around the world, the ability to understand and manage cross-border risk is more important than ever. Risk aversion is high and most organizations have little margin for error when trading, investing or lending abroad. The ability to make sense of the world while minimizing risk is essential. This timely three-day course covers a broad range of issues - from defining what country risk analysis is, to some of the basic tools used to achieve accurate analyses to how to protect your organization from the multitude of risks it faces doing business internationally. After completing this course, you will have a foundation of knowledge broader than almost anyone else in your firm on how to understand and manage cross-border risk. Key Learning A comprehensive overview of the essential elements of performing country risk analysis for traders, investors and lenders How to distinguish fact from fiction when interpreting events Selecting the most useful analytical tools, methodology, and information resources Making the best use of political risk insurance How to avoid making costly mistakes Best practice considerations Methodology As with all Euromoney Training courses, this programme makes use of case studies and exercises to ensure that you leave the course, ready to apply your new knowledge. Who Should Attend Corporate Decision Makers Corporate Treasurers Risk Managers Risk Analysts Trade/Export Finance Executives Traders Investors Lenders Correspondent Bankers Credit Rating Personnel Research Organizations Government Institutions Economists NGOs FTS Eligible This programme is approved for listing on the Financial Training Scheme (FTS) Programme Directory and is eligible for FTS claims subject to all eligibility criteria being met. Please note that in no way does this represent an endorsement of the quality of the training provider and programme. Participants are advised to assess the suitability of the programme and its relevance to participants’ business activities or job roles. The FTS is available to eligible entities, at a 50% funding level of programme fees subject to all eligibility criteria being met. FTS claims may only be made for programmes listed on the FTS Programme Directory with the specified validity period. Please refer to www.ibf.org.sg for more information.
Day 1 Introduction to country risk analysis Sovereign risk Political risk Country risk What are the differences? Defining country risk A mixture of quantitative and qualitative methods Country risk vs. Other risk management Information resources Independent information providers Public sector information providers The importance of different resources Do they matter all the time? Separating fact from fiction How to tell the difference How to avoid mistakes Working example: A Comparison of Indonesia and Vietnam – Not as simple a comparison as one might think at first glance. What matters more? Economic indicators or noneconomic indicators? Apply quantitative and quality methods to the comparison. Creating a risk management framework Putting country risk into a risk context Analyse the necessity of having a framework The steps involved in creating a framework Selecting country risk management tools A review of common tools What are they? Pros and cons Guidelines to choosing the right tools Creating country risk analysis roadmap Facts to consider Why your organization's roadmap will be unique Alternative measures of country risk management Other considerations Customisation under different scenarios Day 2 Political Risk Insurance (PRI) What is PRI? Different types of PRI The importance of PRI Private vs. Public underwriters How to benefit the most from PRI Fundamentals of underwriting PRI Key concepts How the underwriters underwrite Questions to ask Acceptable vs. Unacceptable transactions Role of confinancing: ADB's commercial co-financing program. Many investors don't know it exists. What you need to know to get the most out of ADB financing. Sample transaction structures How country risk management fits into project financing structures Case studies An Indonesian power plant – What, if anything, is different now vs. during the Suharto era? A Nepalese power plant – A look at the unique set of challenges involved in getting finance and insurance. A Philippine toll road – Is obtaining finance easier today as a result of the Philippines’ investment grade rating? Terrorism insurance in Pakistan – How a program was created to help businesses obtain terrorism insurance in one of the world’s most difficult investment climates. The unforeseen risks in Thailand – How unpredictable investment climates can be. Day 3 Common mistakes in country risk analysis Some little known but important examples How to avoid them Regulatory issues Putting the regulatory environment into context Does a stricter regulatory environment reduce the need for country risk management? Exposure limits How to measure exposure limits Important factors to consider The impact of rating downgrades and upgrades How to interpret exposure limits in various situations Best practice considerations Applying best practice in an evolving investment climate Key concepts checklist Pressing concerns around the world Discussion: What’s happening in the world (Iran, Syria, and North Korea, etc.) and what does it mean? Impacts on country risk Thinking outside the box China and the World Some misconceptions about China How to get an objective view The BRICs What they were What they are now What they will be in the future Unchanging factors in changing times Pros and cons Impacts Information collection How to ask the right questions How to share information within the organization